Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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8. Model Evaluation


Executive Summary

8.1 Summary of Second Assessment Report

8.2 What is Meant by Evaluation?

8.2.1 The Approach: Mean State and Variability in Climate Models
8.2.2 The Basis
8.2.3 Figures of Merit

8.3 Model Hierarchy

8.3.1 Why is a Hierarchy of Models Important?
8.3.2 Three-dimensional Climate Models
8.3.3 Simple Climate Models
8.3.4 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity

8.4 Coupled Climate Models Some Methodologies

8.4.1 Model Initialisation
8.4.2 Flux Adjustment and Energy Transports Does the use of flux adjustments in a model have a significant impact on climate change projections?

8.5 Coupled Climate Models Means

8.5.1 Atmospheric Component Development since the SAR Tropospheric climate Stratospheric climate Summary
8.5.2 Ocean Component Developments since the SAR Present climate Summary
8.5.3 Sea Ice Component
8.5.4 Land Surface Component (including the Terrestrial Cryosphere) Introduction Developments since the SAR Does uncertainty in land surface models contribute to uncertainties in climate prediction?
8.5.5 Past Climates Mid-Holocene The last glacial maximum Summary

8.6 20th Century Climate and Climate Variability

8.6.1 20th Century Coupled Model Integrations Including Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols
8.6.2 Coupled Model Variability Comparison with the instrumental record Comparison with palaeo-data
8.6.3 The Role of Volcanic and Solar Forcing and Changes in Land Use
8.6.4 Climate of 20th Century: Summary
8.6.5 Commentary on Land Cover Change

8.7 Coupled Model: Phenomena

8.7.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
8.7.2 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
8.7.3 Monsoons
8.7.4 Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO)
8.7.5 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO)
8.7.6 Pacific-North American (PNA) and Western Pacific (WP) Patterns
8.7.7 Blocking
8.7.8 Summary

8.8 Extreme Events

8.8.1 Extreme Temperature
8.8.2 Extreme Precipitation
8.8.3 Extra-tropical Storms
8.8.4 Tropical Cyclones
8.8.5 Summary and Discussion

8.9 Coupled Models Dependence on Resolution

8.9.1 Resolution in Atmospheric Models
8.9.2 Resolution in Ocean Models
8.9.3 Summary

8.10 Sources of Uncertainty and Levels of Confidence in Coupled Models

8.10.1 Uncertainties in Evaluating Coupled Models
8.10.2 Levels of Confidence
8.10.3 Assessment


Co-ordinating Lead Author
B.J. McAvaney

Lead Authors
C. Covey, S. Joussaume, V. Kattsov, A. Kitoh, W. Ogana, A.J. Pitman, A.J. Weaver, R.A. Wood, Z.-C. Zhao

Contributing Authors
K. AchutaRao, A. Arking, A. Barnston, R. Betts, C. Bitz, G. Boer, P. Braconnot, A. Broccoli, F. Bryan, M. Claussen, R. Colman, P. Delecluse, A. Del Genio, K. Dixon, P. Duffy, L. Dümenil, M. England, T. Fichefet, G. Flato, J.C. Fyfe, N. Gedney, P. Gent, C. Genthon, J. Gregory, E. Guilyardi, S. Harrison, N. Hasegawa, G. Holland, M. Holland, Y. Jia, P.D. Jones, M. Kageyama, D. Keith, K. Kodera, J. Kutzbach, S. Lambert, S. Legutke, G. Madec, S. Maeda, M.E. Mann, G. Meehl, I. Mokhov, T. Motoi, T. Phillips, J. Polcher, G.L. Potter, V. Pope, C. Prentice, G. Roff, F. Semazzi, P. Sellers, D.J. Stensrud, T. Stockdale, R. Stouffer, K.E. Taylor, K. Trenberth, R. Tol, J. Walsh, M. Wild, D. Williamson, S.-P. Xie, X.-H. Zhang, F. Zwiers

Review Editors
Y. Qian, J. Stone

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