Why seek solution for unproven problem?

By David A. Ridenour Copyright 1999 Post and Courier (Charleston, SC) January 4, 1999

The U.S. may have experienced unusual weather in 1998, but it has nothing to do with global warming.

Global warming theory advocates were quick to seize on last summer's heat waves and Hurricane Mitch as evidence that global warming is under way.

But the recent spate of mild winter weather has some Americans wondering if global warming is much of a problem.

During a recent visit to Rhode Island, President Clinton said, "On this magnificent December day, it's hard to see (global warming) as a threat."

Many Americans no doubt agree. Milder temperatures permitted Americans to enjoy such outdoor activities as bicycling and gardening a little longer. Perhaps more important, the mild weather saved consumers a considerable amount of money in heating bills.

In November, declining demand for fuel resulted in a 12 percent drop in spot gas prices - good news for consumers, particularly those on fixed incomes.

But mild weather can no more be credited to global warming than severe weather events can be blamed on it. Just because the weather is mild in one area of the world does not mean the entire planet is warming.

While the United States has been enjoying mild weather, Europe has suffered a cold snap. Since early November, temperatures in northern Scandinavia have repeatedly fallen below 20 degrees, while Moscow's temperature has been consistently below freezing.

Our mild weather is more likely linked to La Nina, the large-scale drop in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, than to global warming.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Ninas are characterized by warmer than normal winters in the Southeast and colder than normal winters in the Northwest.

Global warming theory proponents have also erroneously assumed that the high death toll from Hurricane Mitch - estimated at 11,000 - is evidence that human activities are warming the planet.

NOAA scientists recently announced that Mitch was the deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic since 1780, when a hurricane hitting Martinique, St. Eustatius and Barbados killed 22,000 people.

But setting a 218-year hurricane fatality record is hardly proof that global warming is under way. For one thing, the 1780 Caribbean hurricane occurred during the Little Ice Age, when the planet was close to 1 degree cooler than it is today.

Since twice as many people lost their lives to that hurricane as lost their lives to Mitch, hurricane fatalities seem to be a poor measure of the planet's temperature.

For another thing, hurricane fatalities should be higher today than they were 50, 100, or even 200 years ago - even assuming no change in hurricane intensity - due to increases in population density and better record-keeping methods.

Global warming theory advocates have also argued that the 1998 heat wave was a result of global warming, as though the United States had never experienced hot weather before.

This year's hot weather didn't even set records. North America's record high was reached in July 1913, when Death Valley hit 134 degrees.

None of the other seven continents broke records either. Africa hit its record high in 1922, Asia in 1942, Australia in 1889, Europe in 1881, South America in 1905, Oceania in 1912 and Antarctica in 1974. So much for "record" temperatures being linked to global warming.

The recent mild weather should give those seeking regulations to curb global warming cause for second thoughts, however.

Some scientists think that warmer global temperatures would produce milder winter temperatures and longer growing seasons. Before we move to stop global warming, we must not only be sure it is under way, but that we want to stop it.

Ridenour is vice president of the National Center for Public Policy Research, a nonprofit, nonpartisan educational foundation based in Washington, D.C. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.

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