Climate Change 2001: Mitigation

3.9 Summary and Conclusions

The analysis in this chapter is based upon a review of existing and emerging technologies, and the technological and economic potential that they have for reducing GHG emissions. In many areas, technical progress relevant to GHG emission reduction since the SAR has been significant and faster than anticipated. A broad array of technological options have the combined potential to reduce annual global greenhouse gas emission levels close to or below those of 2000 by 2010 and even lower by 2020.

Estimates of the technical potential, an assessment of the range of potential costs per metric tonne of carbon equivalent (tC_eq), and the probability that a technology will be adopted are presented in Table 3.36 by sector. Specific examples and the estimation methodologies are discussed more fully in the chapter for each sector.

Table 3.36: Estimations of greenhouse gas emission reductions and cost per tonne of carbon equivalent avoided following the anticipated socio-economic potential uptake by 2010 and 2020 of selected energy efficiency and supply technologies, either globally or by region and with varying degrees of uncertainty

		US$/ tC avoided				2010		2020		References, comments, and relevant section in Chapter 3 of this report
		US$/ tC avoided
	Region	–400	–200	0	+200	Potential^a	Probability^b	Potential^a	Probability^b

Buildings/appliances
Residential sector	OECD/ EIT									Acosta Moreno et al., 1996; Brown et al., 1998
Residential sector	Dev. cos.									Wang and Smith, 1999
Commercial sector	OECD/ EIT
Commercial sector	Dev. cos.

Transport
Automobile efficiency improvements	USA									Interlab. Working Group, 1997 Brown et al., 1998
	Europe									US DOE/ EIA, 1998 ECMT, 1997 (8 countries only)
	Japan									Kashiwagi et al., 1999 Denis and Koopman, 1998
	Dev. cos.									Worrell et al., 1997b

Manufacturing
CO₂ removal – fertilizer; refineries	Global									Table 3.21
Material efficiency improvement	Global									Table 3.21
Blended cements	Global									Table 3.21
N₂O reduction by chem. indus.	Global									Table 3.21
PFC reduction by Al industry	Global									Table 3.21
HFC-23 reduction by chem. industry	Global									Table 3.21
Energy efficient improvements	Global									Table 3.19

Agriculture
Increased uptake of conservation tillage and cropland management	Dev. cos.									Zhou, 1998; Table 3.27 Dick et al ., 1998
	Global									IPCC, 2000
Soil carbon sequestration	Global									Lal and Bruce, 1999 Table 3.27
Nitrogenous fertilizer management	OECD									Kroeze & Mosier, 1999 Table 3.27
Nitrogenous fertilizer management	Global									OECD, 1999; IPCC, 2000
Enteric methane reduction	OECD									Kroeze & Mosier, 1999 Table 3.27
	USA									OECD, 1998 Reimer & Freund, 1999
	Dev. cos.									Chipato, 1999
Rice paddy irrigation and fertilizers	Global									Riemer & Freund, 1999 IPCC, 2000

Wastes
Landfill methane capture	OECD									Landfill methane USEPA, 1999

Energy supply
Nuclear for coal	Global									Totals^c – See Section 3.8.6
	Annex I									Table 3.35a
	Non- Annex I									Table 3.35b
Nuclear for gas	Annex I									Table 3.35c
Nuclear for gas	Non- Annex I									Table 3.35d
Gas for coal	Annex I									Table 3.35a
Gas for coal	Non- Annex I									Tables 3.35b
CO₂ capture from coal	Global									Tables 3.35a + b
CO₂ capture from gas	Global									Tables 3.35c + d
Biomass for coal	Global									Tables 3.35a + b Moore, 1998; Interlab w. gp. 1997
Biomass for gas	Global									Tables 3.35c + d
Wind for coal or gas	Global									Tables 3.35a - d BTM Cons 1999; Greenpeace, 1999
Co-fire coal with 10% biomass	USA									Sulilatu, 1998
Solar for coal	Annex I									Table 3.35a
Solar for coal	Non- Annex I									Table 3.35b
Hydro for coal	Global									Tables 3.35a + b
Hydro for gas	Global									Tables 3.35c + d

Notes: ^a Potential in terms of tonnes of carbon equivalent avoided for the cost range of US$/ tC given. = <20 MtC/ yr = 20- 50 MtC/ yr = 50- 100MtC/ yr = 100- 200MtC/ yr = >200 MtC/ yr ^b Probability of realizing this level of potential based on the costs as indicated from the literature. = Very unlikely = Unlikely = Possible = Probable = Highly probable ^c Energy supply total mitigation options assumes that not all the potential will be realized for various reasons including competition between the individual technologies as listed below the totals.

Available estimates of the technological potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and its costs suffer from several important limitations:

There are no consistent estimates of technological and economic potential covering all the major regions of the world;
Country- and region-specific studies employ different assumptions about the future progress of technologies and other key factors;
Studies make different assumptions about the difficulty of overcoming barriers to the market penetration of advanced technologies and the willingness of consumers to accept low-carbon technologies;
Most studies do not describe a range of costs over a domain of carbon reduction levels, and many report average rather than marginal mitigation costs; and
Social discount rates of 5%-12% are commonly used in studies of the economic potential for specific technologies which are lower than those typically used by individuals and in industry.

A summary of the estimates of the potential for worldwide emission reductions is given in Table 3.37. Overall, the total potential for worldwide greenhouse gas emissions reductions resulting from technological developments and their adoption are estimated to amount to 1,900-2,600MtC/yr by 2010²⁸ and 3,600–5,050MtC/yr by 2020.

Table 3.37: Estimates of potential global greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 and in 2020.

Sector		Historic emissions in 1990 (MtC_eq/yr)	Historic C_eq annual growth rate in 1990-1995 (%)	Potential emission reductions in 2010 (MtC_eq/yr)	Potential emission reductions in 2020 (MtC_eq/yr)	Net direct costs per tonne of carbon avoided

Buildings^a	CO₂ only	1650	1.0	700-750	1000-1100	Most reductions are available at negative net direct costs.
Transport	CO₂ only	1080	2.4	100-300	300-700	Most studies indicate net direct costs less than US$25/tC but two suggest net direct costs will exceed US$50/tC.
Industry -energy efficiency -material efficiency	CO₂ only	2300	0.4	300-500 ~200	700-900 ~600	More than half available at net negative direct costs. Costs are uncertain.
Industry	Non-CO₂ gases	170		~100	~100	N₂O emissions reduction costs are US$0-$10/tC_eq.
Agriculture^b	CO₂ only Non-CO₂ gases	210 1250-2800		150-300	350-750	Most reductions will cost between US$0-100/tC_eq with limited opportunities for negative net direct cost options.
Waste^b	CH₄ only	240	1.0	~200	~200	About 75% of the savings as methane recovery from landfills at net negative direct cost; 25% at a cost of US$20/tC_eq.
Montreal Protocol replacement applications	Non-CO₂ gases	0		~100		About half of reductions due to difference in study baseline and SRES baseline values. Remaining half of the reductions available at net direct costs below US$200/tC_eq.
Energy supply and conversion^c	CO₂ only	(1620)	1.5	50-150	350-700	Limited net negative direct cost options exist; many options are available for less than US$100/tC_eq.

Total		6,900-8,400^d		1,900-2,600^e	3,600-5,050^e

^a Buildings include appliances, buildings, and the building shell. ^b The range for agriculture is mainly caused by large uncertainties about CH₄, N₂O, and soil-related emissions of CO₂. Waste is dominated by landfill methane and the other sectors could be estimated with more precision as they are dominated by fossil CO₂. ^c Included in sector values above. Reductions include electricity generation options only (fuel switching to gas/nuclear, CO₂ capture and storage, improved power station efficiencies, and renewables). ^d Total includes all sectors reviewed in Chapter 3 for all six gases. It excludes non-energy related sources of CO₂ (cement production, 160MtC; gas flaring, 60MtC; and land use change, 600-1,400MtC) and energy used for conversion of fuels in the end-use sector totals (630MtC). Note that forestry emissions and their carbon sink mitigation options are not included. ^e The baseline SRES scenarios (for six gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) project a range of emissions of 11,500-14,000MtCeq for 2010 and of 12,000-16,000MtC_eq for 2020. The emissions reduction estimates are most compatible with baseline emissions trends in the SRES-B2 scenario. The potential reductions take into account regular turnover of capital stock. They are not limited to cost-effective options, but exclude options with costs above US$100/tC_eq (except for Montreal Protocol gases) or options that will not be adopted through the use of generally accepted policies.

In the scenarios that were constructed within the SRES emissions of the six Kyoto Protocol greenhouse gases develop as follows (in MtC_eq, rounded numbers):

   1990: 9,500
   2000: 10,500
   2010: 11,500 – 13,800
   2020: 12,000 – 15,900

It was not possible to calculate the emission reduction potential of the short-term mitigation options presented in this Chapter on the basis of the SRES scenarios, mainly because of lack of technological detail in the SRES. In order to come to a comprehensive emission reduction estimate, it has been ensured that for all the sectors the estimates are compatible with one of the scenarios, i.e. the B2-Message (standardized) scenario. The emission reductions presented in Table 3.37 total 14% - 23% of baseline emissions in the year 2010 and to 23% - 42% of baseline emissions in the year 2020.²⁹ If these percentages also apply to the other scenarios - there is no obvious reason why this would not be the case – it is concluded that in most situations the annual global greenhouse gas emission levels can be reduced to a level close to or below those of 2000 by 2010 and even lower by 2020.

The evidence on which this conclusion is based is extensive, but is subject to the limitations outlined above. Therefore, the estimates as presented in the table should be considered to be indicative only. Nevertheless, the main conclusion presented above can be drawn with a high degree of confidence.

Costs of options vary by technology, sector and region (see cost discussion in Table 3.37). Based upon the costs in a majority of the studies, approximately half of the potential for emissions reductions cited above for 2010 and 2020 can be achieved at net negative costs (value of energy saved exceeds capital, operating and maintenance costs) using the social discount rates cited. Most of the remainder can be achieved at a cost of less than US$100/tC_eq.

The overall rate of diffusion of low emission technologies is insufficient to offset the societal trend of increasing consumption of energy-intensive goods and services, which results in increased emissions. Nevertheless, substantial technical progress has been made in many areas, including the market introduction of efficient hybrid engine cars, the demonstration of underground carbon dioxide storage, the rapid advancement of wind turbine design, and the near elimination of N₂O emissions from adipic acid production.

Hundreds of technologies and practices exist to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the buildings, transport, and industrial sectors. These energy efficiency options are responsible for more than half of the total emission reduction potential of these sectors. Efficiency improvements in material use (including recycling) will also become more important in the longer term.

The energy supply and conversion sector will remain dominated by cheap and abundant fossil fuels but with potential for reduction in emission caused by the shift from coal to natural gas, conversion efficiency improvement of power plants, the adoption of distributedcogeneration plants, and carbon dioxide recovery and sequestration. The continued use of nuclear power plants (including their lifetime extension) and the application of renewable energy sources will avoid emissions from fossil fuel use. Biomass from by-products, wastes, and methane from landfills is a potentially important energy source which can be supplemented by energy crop production where suitable land and water are available. Wind energy and hydropower will also contribute, more so than solar energy because of the latter’s relatively high costs.

N₂O and some fluorinated greenhouse gas reductions have already been achieved through major technological advances. Process changes, improved containment, recovery and recycling, and the use of alternative compounds and technologies have been implemented. Potential for future reductions exists, including process-related emissions from insulated foam and semiconductor production, and by-product emissions from aluminium and HCFC-22. The potential for energy efficiency improvements connected to the use of fluorinated gases is of a similar magnitude to reductions of direct emissions.

Agriculture contributes 20% of total global anthropogenic emissions, but although there are a number of technology mitigation options available, such as soil carbon sequestration, enteric methane control, and conservation tillage, the widely diverse nature of the sector makes capture of emission reductions difficult.

Appropriate policies are required to realize these potentials. Furthermore, on-going research and development is expected to significantly widen the portfolio of technologies to provide emission reduction options. Maintaining these R&D activities together with technology transfer actions will be necessary if the longer term potential as outlined in Table 3.37 is to be realized. Balancing mitigation activities in the various sectors with other goals such as those related to development, equity, and sustainability is the key to ensuring they are effective.

Other reports in this collection