Figure 16-7: (a)
Zonation of permafrost in the northern hemisphere under climate scenario predicted
by ECHAM1-A GCM (Cubasch et al., 1992). (b) Hazard potential associated
with degradation of permafrost under ECHAM1-A climate change scenario. Map represents
areas of stable permafrost and low, moderate, and high susceptibility to subsidence.
Classification is based on a "thaw-settlement index" calculated as the
product of existing ground-ice content (Brown et al., 1997) and predicted increases
in depth of thaw (Anisimov et al., 1997). Hazard-zone intervals were derived through
division of resulting frequency distribution, using a nested-means procedure (Scripter,
1970).
