Climate Change 2001:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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10.2.2. Food Security

10.2.2.1. Context of Food Security

Present and future prospects for food security are significant determinants of the impacts of climate change. International agricultural systems and socioeconomic conditions at the household level are major elements of vulnerability. The consequences of present vulnerability for hunger and nutrition are marked. Regional indicators related to food security are shown in Table 10-2.

Table 10-2: Indicators of regional vulnerability in Africa (WRI, 1996).
(a) Vulnerability Indicators
  Expenditure
on Food
(% of consumption)
Food Aid
(Cereals)
kg per capita
Refugees
Adult
Female Literacy
(%)
Infant
Mortality
(per 1000)
African Regiona  
 

-Northern

42
18
221,450
45
59
 

-Sudano-Sahelian

42
13
974,800
17
119
 

-Gulf of Guinea

39
6
819,750
28
109
 

-Central

39
3
480,500
41
91
 

-Eastern

37
4
1,408,150
43
102
 

-Indian Ocean

57
12
0
73
66
 

-Southern

57
15
1,793,800
53
85
             
Total
57
10
5,698,450
35
97
             
Comparison Country  
 

-Bangladesh

59
12
245,300
22
108
 

-Thailand

30
2
255,000
90
26
 

-Mexico

35
3
47,300
85
35
 

-Greece

30
-1
1,900
89
8
 

-United Kingdom

12
-3
24,600
 
7
(b) Regional Agriculture in Africa
 
Pop
Density
(pop.
km-2)
Pop
Growth
(%)
Crop
Land
(% of
total)
Irrigated
Land
(% of
total)
Avg
Yield of
Cereals
(kg
ha-1)
Ferti
lizer
Use
(kg
yr-1)
Food
Prod
Index
(1970=
100)
GNP
per
Capita
(US$)
GNP
in Agri
culture
(%)
GNP
Growth
Rate
(% yr-1)
Public Agri-
cultural
Invest
ment
(US$)
Regiona
                     

-Northern

226
2.25
5
27
1,973
94
115
1,285
17
3.60
25

-Sudano- Sahelian

106
2.72
4
7
727
5
90
860
34
2.36
7

-Gulf of Guinea

891
2.83
21
2
892
6
100
760
39
1.87
15

-Central

145
2.70
4
1
923
2
87
760
22
2.15
5

-Eastern

451
2.88
10
2
1,363
12
92
593
47
3.05
13

-Indian Ocean

262
1.96
5
23
1,988
140
98
280
22
3.85
6

-Southern

208
2.56
6
7
929
27
76
333
21
3.38
7
                       
Total
253
2.65
6
8
1,098
25
92
355
30
2.75
11
                       
Comparison Country                      

-Bangladesh

9,853
2.18
72
31
2,572
101
96
205
37
4.20
68

-Thailand

1141
0.92
45
19
2,052
39
109
1,697
13
7.80
78

-Mexico

491
1.55
13
21
2,430
69
100
2,971
8
1.50
129

-Greece

795
0.07
30
31
3,700
172
101
6,530
17
1.60
25

-UK

2,404
0.19
28
2
6,332
350
112
33,850
2
2.80
347
a Northern: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia; Sudano-Sahelian: Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Djibouti, Eritria, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan; Gulf of Guinea: Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Togo; Central: Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, Democratic Republic of Congo; Eastern: Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda; Indian Ocean: Comoros, Madagascar, Mautitius, Seychelles; Southern: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

Food production in most of SSA has not kept pace with the population increase over the past 3 decades. In Africa as a whole, food consumption exceeded domestic production by 50% in the drought-prone mid-1980s and more than 30% in the mid-1990s (WRI, 1998). Food aid constitutes a major proportion of net food trade in Africa, and in many countries it constitutes more than half of net imports. In Kenya and Tanzania, for instance, food aid constituted two-thirds of food imports during the 1990s. Despite food imports, per capita dietary energy supply (DES) remains relatively low (Hulme, 1996); about one-third of the countries in Africa had per capita DES of less than 2,000 kcal day-1 in the 1990s—lower than the minimum recommended intake (data from WRI, 1998).

Agricultural and economic growth must rise—perhaps by 4% yr-1—to realize basic development goals. Today, only a few countries achieve this rate of growth. One consequence of agricultural growth could be a doubling by the year 2050 of cultivated land area—at great cost to the natural environment—unless there is greater investment in agricultural management and technology on existing cropland (Anon, 1999). The scale of food imports fosters dependence on food production in the rest of the world. Africa faces the risk that supplies will fluctuate drastically with the rise and fall of grain reserves and prices on international markets. A major challenge facing Africa is to increase agricultural production and achieve sustainable economic growth; both are essential to improving food security.

Agriculture is not only a vital source of food in Africa; it also is the prevailing way of life. An average of 70% of the population lives by farming, and 40% of all exports are earned from agricultural products (WRI, 1996). One-third of the national income in Africa is generated by agriculture. Crop production and livestock husbandry account for about half of household income. The poorest members of society are those who are most dependent on agriculture for jobs and income. On average, the poor from developing countries of SSA spend 60-80% of their total income on food (see Odingo, 1990; WRI, 1998; FAO, 1999b). Although industry is significant in a few patches, it still is in its infancy. In many countries, the level of mechanization—including irrigation, processing, and storage facilities—is particularly low.

High-quality land resources per household have shrunk in Africa over the past 2 decades, often dramatically. Traditional, social, and legal status in the sub-Saharan region is responsible for unequal access to land. This, in turn, increases the risk of resource degradation. Lack of land tenure security reduces the motivation to invest in conservation of resources.

Agriculture and household incomes are characterized by large interannual and seasonal variations. The annual flow of income normally rises and peaks during the harvest season. Nonagricultural and migrant, off-farm wage incomes are substitutes during the dry season. The period preceding the harvest is critical: Farmers engage in unemployment-induced migration to urban centers as one of the strategies for coping with scarcity. Fluctuations in annual food production resulting from climate variability place a heavy reliance on food aid, at the national and household levels.

Reduced food supplies and high prices immediately affect landless laborers who have little or no savings. Poverty, population, and sometimes conflicts combine to affect education in many African countries. As a result of population pressure as well as rural and urban economic depression, population mobility sets in. Populations move from the savanna to the forest, from plateaus to drained valleys, from landlocked countries to coastal areas and those with infrastructures, and from rural to urban centers within a country in search of better lands and opportunities (Davies, 1996). Internal mobility and its consequences vary from country to country: It is low in Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi, Burundi, and Rwanda but high in Burkina Faso and Kenya and very high in Cote d'Ivoire. Migrations lead to high and rising urban growth across the African region. This translates into increasing pressure on the environment, including social amenities.

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