5.10. Research Needs across Ecosystems
Most of the foregoing sections mention the need for further research in many
areas. Results are needed for future assessments of the impacts of climate change
on goods and services provided by ecosystems, adaptation options, or identification
of vulnerable systems or regions. It also is clear that most of the research
to date has focused on impacts and some on adaptation, with little effort on
the vulnerability of systems or regions. Key areas where research is needed
to improve future assessments and decrease uncertainties in existing knowledge
are as follows (order does not imply priority):
- Long-term monitoring of agricultural processes for detection of impacts
of climate change and climate variability and development of possible adaptations
to these impacts
- Coupling of pest and crop/animal process modeling to estimate climate-induced
pest impacts on crops and livestock
- Pest and disease interaction with climate change and the impact of these
interactions on many ecosystems
- Development of coupled biophysical-economic modeling of farm-level decisionmaking
under climate change
- Improved understanding of agricultural vulnerability and adaptive capacity
- Improved understanding of interactive effects of climate change and management
on carbon source-sink relations in many ecosystems
- Determination of mechanisms that create the often complex changes in wildlife
populations, through a systems-type approach to problemsolving such as strategic
cyclical scaling (SCS)3
- Development of better understanding of the link between biodiversity and
ecosystems functions (role each species plays in ecosystem goods and services
is necessary to understand the risks and possible surprises associated with
species loss)
- The impact of land-use change on biodiversity and the consequence of these
impacts on good and services from ecosystems
- The impact of the added stress of climate change on many ecosystems that
are under pressure from human activities
- Exploration of management options (including individual species range) that
could be used to adapt to the impacts of global change (allowing ecosystems
to continue to provide essential goods and services in a changed and rapidly
changing world)
- Exploration of the role of integrated management as a means for providing
better management options for many ecosystems
- Long-term experiments on intact natural ecosystems across their native range
to study the interactive effect of climate change, elevated CO2,
nutrient/pollution deposition, soil moisture, and WUE of plants
- The interaction of elevated CO2, increased temperature, and changes
in soil moisture with nitrogen deposition and land-use change in influencing
the goods and services provided by ecosystems
- Valuation of nonmarket goods and services, such as recreation and NWFP
- Management of exotics and achieving desired community structures (research
and alternative models for such activities needed in terrestrial and aquatic
systems)
- Development of a predictive approach for identifying and dealing with spatial
heterogeneity, since responses to climate change differ greatly in adjacent
areas (increasing the risk of inappropriate actions with large expenditures
of local resources)
- Development of systems models for peatlands, including analysis and modeling
of the dynamic interactions between climate change impacts, vegetation development,
and carbon exchange between wetland ecosystems and the atmosphere at several
spatial scales (from stands to regions to the globe)
- The role of fire and other disturbances on many ecosystems and their role
in trace-gas budgets
- Time lags by which productivity, decomposition, and disturbance in ecosystems
respond to climatic change
- Assessment of the vulnerability of unique biological resources that are
culturally important to many indigenous peoples.
