Figure 21: Analysis of inter-model
consistency in regional relative warming (warming relative to each model’s
global average warming). Regions are classified as showing either agreement on
warming in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much greater than average
warming’), agreement on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater
than average warming’), agreement on warming less than the global average
(‘Less than average warming’), or disagreement amongst models on the
magnitude of regional relative warming (‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming’).
There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs). A consistent
result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement.
The global annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for
A2 and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2,
and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to
6.3°C for A2 and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2.
[Based on Chapter 10, Box 1 , Figure
1]]
