Figure 10.4: Analysis of
inter-model consistency in regional warming relative to each model’s global
warming, based on the results presented in Figure 10.3.
Regions are classified as showing either agreement on warming in excess of 40%
above the global average (“Much greater than average warming”), agreement
on warming greater than the global average (“Greater than average warming”),
agreement on warming less than the global average (“Less than average warming”),
or disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming (“Inconsistent
magnitude of warming”). There is also a category for agreement on cooling
(which is not used). GG is the greenhouse gas only case (see Figure
10.3a), and, GS, the greenhouse gas with increased sulphate case (see Figure
10.3b). In constructing the figure, ensemble results were averaged to a single
case, and “agreement” was defined as having at least four of the five
GG models agreeing or three of the four GS models agreeing. The global annual
average warming of the models used span 3.0 to 4.9°C for GG and 2.5 to 3.8°C
for GS, and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of
4.2 to 6.9°C for GG and 3.5 to 5.3°C for GS.
