Climate Change 2001:
Working Group I: The Scientific Basis
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13. Climate Scenario Development


Executive Summary

13.1 Introduction

13.1.1 Definition and Nature of Scenarios
13.1.2 Climate Scenario Needs of the Impacts Community

13.2 Types of Scenarios of Future Climate

13.2.1 Incremental Scenarios for Sensitivity Studies
13.2.2 Analogue Scenarios Spatial analogues Temporal analogues
13.2.3 Scenarios Based on Outputs from Climate Models Scenarios from General Circulation Models Scenarios from simple climate models
13.2.4 Other Types of Scenarios

13.3 Defining the Baseline

13.3.1 The Choice of Baseline Period
13.3.2 The Adequacy of Baseline Climatological Data
13.3.3 Combining Baseline and Modelled Data

13.4 Scenarios with Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Resolution

13.4.1 Spatial Scale of Scenarios Regional modelling Statistical downscaling Applications of the methods to impacts
13.4.2 Temporal Variability Incorporation of changes in variability: daily to interannual time-scales Other techniques for incorporating extremes into climate scenarios

13.5 Representing Uncertainty in Climate Scenarios

13.5.1 Key Uncertainties in Climate Scenarios Specifying alternative emissions futures Uncertainties in converting emissions to concentrations Uncertainties in converting concentrations to radiative forcing Uncertainties in modelling the climate response to a given forcing Uncertainties in converting model response into inputs for impact studies
13.5.2 Approaches for Representing Uncertainties Scaling climate model response patterns Defining climate change signals Risk assessment approaches Annotation of climate scenarios

13.6 Consistency of Scenario Components


Co-ordinating Lead Authors
L.O. Mearns, M. Hulme

Lead Authors
T.R. Carter, R. Leemans, M. Lal, P. Whetton

Contributing Authors
L. Hay, R.N. Jones, R. Katz, T. Kittel, J. Smith, R. Wilby

Review Editors
L.J. Mata, J. Zillman

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